Knowledge sharing in organizations: A Bayesian analysis of the role of reciprocity and formal structure

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordWe examine the conditions under which knowledge embedded in advice relations is likely to reach across intraorganizational boundaries and be shared between distant organizational members. We emphasize boundary-crossing relations because activities of knowledge transfer and sharing across subunit boundaries are systematically related to desirable organizational outcomes. Our main objective is to understand how organizational and social processes interact to sustain the transfer of knowledge carried by advice relations. Using original fieldwork and data that we have collected on members of the top management team in a multiunit industrial group, we show that knowledge embedded in task advice relations is unlikely to crosscut intraorganizational boundaries, unless advice relations are reciprocated, and supported by the presence of hierarchical relations linking managers in different subunits. The results we report are based on a novel Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Models (BERGMs) framework that allows us to test and assess the empirical value of our hypotheses while at the same time accounting for structural characteristics of the intraorganizational network of advice relations. We rely on computational and simulation methods to establish the consistency of the network implied by the model we propose with the structure of the intraorganizational network that we actually observed

Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Models with Nodal Random Effects

We extend the well-known and widely used Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) by including nodal random effects to compensate for heterogeneity in the nodes of a network. The Bayesian framework for ERGMs proposed by Caimo and Friel (2011) yields the basis of our modelling algorithm. A central question in network models is the question of model selection and following the Bayesian paradigm we focus on estimating Bayes factors. To do so we develop an approximate but feasible calculation of the Bayes factor which allows one to pursue model selection. Two data examples and a small simulation study illustrate our mixed model approach and the corresponding model selection.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, 3 table

Human performance in manufacturing tasks: Optimization and assessment of required workload and capabilities

This paper discusses some examples where human performance and or human error prediction was achieved by using a modified version of the Rasch model(1980), where the probability of a specified outcome is modelled as a logistic function of the difference between the person capacity and item difficulty. The model needs to be modified to take into account an outcome that may not be dichotomous and o take into account the interaction between two macro factors: (a) Task complexity: that summarises all factors contributing to physical and mental workload requirements for execution of a given operative task & (b) Human capability: that considered the skills, training and experience of the people facing the tasks, representing a synthesis of their physical and cognitive abilities to verify whether or not they are matching the task requirements. Task complexity can be evaluated as a mathematical construct considering the compound effects of Mental Workload Demands and Physical Workload Demands associated to an operator task. Similarly, operator capability can be estimated on the basis of the operators' set of cognitive capabilities and physical conditions. The examples chosen for the application of the model were quite different: one is a set of assembly workstation in large computer manufacturing company and the other a set of workstation in the automotive sector. This paper presents and discusses the modelling hypothesis, the interim field data collection, results and possible future direction of the studies.

Italian sociologists: a community of disconnected groups

Examining coauthorship networks is key to study scientific collaboration patterns and structural characteristics of scientific communities. Here, we studied coauthorship networks of sociologists in Italy, using temporal and multi-level quantitative analysis. By looking at publications indexed in Scopus, we detected research communities among Italian sociologists. We found that Italian sociologists are fractured in many disconnected groups. The giant connected component could be split into five main groups with a mix of three main disciplinary topics: sociology of culture and communication (present in two groups), economic sociology (present in three groups) and general sociology (present in three groups). By applying an exponential random graph model, we found that collaboration ties are mainly driven by theresearch interestsof these groups. Other factors, such aspreferential attachment,genderandaffiliation homophilyare also important, but the effect of gender fades away once other factors are controlled for. Our research shows the advantages of multi-level and temporal network analysis in revealing the complexity of scientific collaboration patterns.Merit, Expertise and Measuremen

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Latent Markov Random Fields and Social Networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures, accepted in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (http://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs.cfm

Noisy Monte Carlo: Convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel $P$. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace $P$ by an approximation $\hat{P}$. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how 'close' the chain given by the transition kernel $\hat{P}$ is to the chain given by $P$. We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.Comment: This version: results extended to non-uniformly ergodic Markov chain

Bayesian Computation with Intractable Likelihoods

This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent developments in pseudo-marginal methods, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), the exchange algorithm, thermodynamic integration, and composite likelihood, paying particular attention to advancements in scalability for large datasets. We also mention R and MATLAB source code for implementations of these algorithms, where they are available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1503.0806

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates